China is helping cushion Western aluminium markets after production losses in the Gulf caused by the Iran war. Yet the export surge could come with a longer-term cost: more aluminium processing activity may shift from Western manufacturers to Chinese producers.
China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, has increased exports of primary metal, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products as Western supply chains adjust to reduced Gulf output. The additional material has helped reduce the market’s immediate supply stress.
China’s export pattern is strongly shaped by its tax system. Primary aluminium exports face a 30 per cent tax, while aluminium alloy and semi-finished products, known as semis, can be exported at a zero tax rate.
As a result, much of the extra volume is leaving China as alloy, bar, rod, tube and other processed products rather than unwrought primary metal.
China’s primary aluminium exports rose 32 per cent year on year to 38,400 tonnes in the first half of 2026. However, much of that volume is likely Western-origin metal stored in Chinese bonded warehouses and redirected to Western markets. For example, Chinese data recorded exports of 9,700 tonnes to the United States in January to June, while US customs data showed only 70 tonnes of Chinese imports over the same period.
Alloy exports rose faster, nearly doubling to 238,500 tonnes in the first six months of the year. China became a net exporter of aluminium alloy in June for the first time since 2019.
Semi-finished aluminium exports reached 3.2 million tonnes in January to June, up 18 per cent year on year. June shipments totalled 695,000 tonnes, a monthly record.