Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,895 per tonne in the night session of August 18, reached a high of RMB 23,895 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,725 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,750 per tonne, down 0.86 per cent from the previous close. Futures broke below the short-term MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages, testing support at MA60 (23,724.84), with several short-term moving averages turning into resistance. Trading volume expanded during the session, while open interest increased simultaneously, with bears adding positions markedly. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross persisted, with green bars continuing to widen, giving short-term momentum an advantage for bears. On August 18, LME aluminium opened at USD 3,262.0 per tonne, reached a high of USD 3,269.5 per tonne and a low of USD 3,210.0 per tonne, and finally closed at USD 3,217.5 per tonne, down 1.29 per cent from the previous close. Prices fell sharply on high volume, breaking below the short-term MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages, which shifted from support to resistance. Trading volume expanded that day, while open interest dropped significantly, mainly due to bulls reducing positions. On the technical front, the DIFF line of the daily MACD remained above the DEA line, but red bars contracted sharply, suggesting rapidly fading upward momentum for bulls and the risk of a death cross.
Macro Front: Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree, promulgating the State Council’s Decision on Revising the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund, which will take effect on September 20, 2026. It was mentioned that the restriction requiring rent to exceed a prescribed percentage of family wage income for the withdrawal of housing provident fund to pay rent will be removed; new circumstances allowing the withdrawal of the housing provident fund have been added, including the decoration of self-occupied housing, payment of property management fees for self-occupied housing, and other housing-related consumption approved by the State Council. “Fed mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos: Corporate executives surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation to be 3.3 per cent over the next year, slightly down from 3.7 per cent in Q2. They expect no significant changes in wage growth (2.8 per cent over the next year, compared with 2.9 per cent in last year’s survey) and employment levels. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through September is 65 per cent, with a 35 per cent probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 51.4 per cent, while the probabilities for a cumulative 25 bps and 50 bps rate hike are 41.3 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively.