Mysteel’s price assessment showed that China’s aluminium prices demonstrated a clear recovery trend entering July 2026. On one hand, the previous oversold conditions provided technical momentum for a rebound; on the other, fundamentals offered robust support. During the price correction phase, the destocking of aluminium ingots accelerated markedly, as downstream enterprises actively replenished inventories at lower levels. This concentrated release of demand effectively neutralised downward price pressures, jointly driving the stabilisation and rebound of aluminium prices throughout July.{alcircleadd}
On the supply side, Mysteel’s full-sample survey of Chinese primary aluminium producers indicates that China’s primary aluminium production in July 2026 came in at 3,878,700 tonnes, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.79 per cent and a month-on-month rise of 3.47 per cent. The average daily output for July was 125,100 tonnes, a marginal month-on-month increase of 100 tonnes based on 31 production days. In July, the operating capacity expanded slightly. The commissioning of new capacity and the resumption of idled lines in Northwest and North China have largely concluded, while production in other regions remained stable with limited fluctuations.
With regard to scrap supply, the average spread between primary aluminium and aluminium scrap in July was RMB 504 per tonne, widening by RMB 22 per tonne from June, per Mysteel assessment. Despite the consumption off-season weighing on overall downstream demand, the earlier sharp price drop prompted scrap traders to become increasingly reluctant to sell, leading to temporary tightness in scrap supply.