The daytime session closed at RMB 24,075 per tonne yesterday, edging up 0.02 per cent, with intraday fluctuations between 23,980 and 24,110. Prices remained above all key moving averages (MA5=24,000, MA10=23,558.5, MA30=23,789.83, MA60=23,569.67), with the moving average system maintaining a bullish alignment and the medium-term uptrend intact.
The MACD indicator showed DIF=101.76 and DEA=91.37, with the histogram turning from negative to positive at 20.78, forming a golden cross signal that indicates renewed bullish momentum and a possible end to the short-term correction. Trading volume rebounded slightly to 61,600 lots, with market activity showing modest improvement.
The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,800-24,400. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,276.5 per tonne, up 0.12 per cent, with intraday fluctuations between 3,248 and 3,276.5. Prices remained above all key moving averages (MA5=3,248.9, MA10=3,236.7, MA30=3,233.3), with the moving average system in bullish alignment. The MACD indicator showed DIF=5.60 and DEA=2.95, with the histogram positive at 5.29, maintaining a golden cross state and sustained bullish momentum. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,250-3,320.
Macro front: US Central Command confirmed that starting from 0:00 Beijing time on September 2, US forces launched strikes against targets of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and US military bases in the region. US President Trump stated that the strikes were “massive and powerful.” If Iran retaliates against these strikes, it will face even more intense and higher-intensity strikes. Following the latest round of attacks, Iran’s armed forces announced they had launched operations in response to the US strikes, with US bases and interests in the region now being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.
Fed Governor Barr said he would be prepared to support rate hikes if US inflation fails to ease further. With Fed Chairman Warsh having previously signalled a hawkish stance and US Treasury yields continuing to climb, market expectations for the Fed to resume rate hikes as early as the September meeting have further intensified.
Fundamentals: Markets outside China, overseas aluminium production resumptions and new capacity continue to ramp up as planned, with damaged capacity in the Middle East gradually recovering. Market expectations for the global aluminium market to shift from tight to loose in the longer term persist, continuing to cap aluminium price upside room.
However, LME visible inventory remains at a historically extremely low level of around 250,000 tonnes, providing bottom support for LME aluminium. As oil prices pull back, overseas smelting energy costs are edging lower at the margin, weakening cost support for aluminium prices.