SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,190 per tonne, up 0.64 per cent, hitting a new recent high. The price stood well above all key moving averages (MA5=23,998, MA10=23,815, MA30=23,312, MA60=23,720), with the MA system in a bullish alignment, confirming a clear medium-term uptrend. The MACD indicator showed DIF at 184.13 and DEA at 75.84, maintaining a golden cross above the zero axis, with the histogram bar expanding to 216.59, indicating growing bullish momentum.
Trading volume contracted slightly to 43,800 lots, showing a minor volume-price divergence. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,800-24,500. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,346.5 per tonne, up 0.34 per cent, extending its strong performance.
The price was well above all key moving averages (MA5=3,292.9, MA10=3,247.35, MA30=3,183.2), with the MAs in a bullish alignment and the medium-term uptrend intact. The MACD histogram bar expanded to 50.83 (from 40.3 the previous day), reflecting sustained bullish momentum. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,320-3,380.
Macro Front: US President Trump stated that Iran is demanding compensation for losses suffered during the past five months of military conflict, and that the US is likewise demanding compensation from Iran, having instructed its representatives to explicitly incorporate this demand into all future negotiations. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.27 per cent, a 19-year high, while the 10-year yield reached 4.75 per cent, once again nearing 5 per cent.
Fundamentals: Supply side, China’s weekly aluminium production remained basically stable this week, with the proportion of liquid aluminium rising 0.19 percentage points M-o-M. Outside China, aluminium supply is expected to continue increasing as new project ramp-ups and production resumptions progress.
However, the global aluminium ingot destocking trend remained unchanged in the short term. Demand side, the downstream processing industry was in the traditional consumption off-season, with total operating rate under pressure; aluminium billet processing fees pulled back, weakening substitution demand for aluminium ingots. Inventory side, China’s aluminium social inventory continued its destocking trend this week.
As of Monday this week, China’s aluminium ingot social inventory destocked by 16,000 tonnes W-o-W from last Thursday to 917,000 tonnes, and by 41,000 tonnes from last Monday, with the destocking pace narrowing further. Meanwhile, aluminium billet inventory posted a slight buildup, increasing by 4,000 tonnes W-o-W. The aluminium ingot inventory is expected to continue its destocking trend in the short term.