London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium warehouse inventories have almost halved in 2026. Warehouse stocks fell from 440,650 tonnes in January to 246,600 tonnes by June, a decline of nearly 45 per cent. At first glance, that simply looks like metal leaving exchange warehouses. But look closer and the picture becomes far more intriguing.
Russian-origin aluminium now accounts for almost 95 per cent of the metal remaining on LME warrant, while Indian inventories have repeatedly entered and exited the exchange.
So what exactly is happening? The answer lies in two completely different stories unfolding inside the same warehouse system.
The decline in total LME inventories tells only part of the story. A closer look at the data shows that Russia and India followed remarkably different inventory trends despite remaining the exchange’s two largest warehouse origins.
Russian-origin aluminium accounted for around 58 per cent of total inventories in January and 60 per cent in February. As stocks from other origins declined more rapidly, Russia’s share rose to approximately 92 per cent in March. A temporary recovery in Indian inventories reduced that figure to around 73 per cent in April, before it increased again to approximately 93 per cent in May and nearly 95 per cent in June.
The increase in Russia’s share, however, was accompanied by only modest changes in Russian warehouse stocks. Inventories eased from 255,075 tonnes in January to 251,700 tonnes in February, before declining to 247,475 tonnes in March, 241,125 tonnes in April, 237,175 tonnes in May and 234,025 tonnes in June.
India’s inventory trend looked markedly different.
Warehouse stocks slipped slightly from 156,725 tonnes in January to 152,500 tonnes in February (-2.7 per cent), before falling sharply to 19,875 tonnes in March (-87.0 per cent). They then recovered to 89,200 tonnes in April (+348.8 per cent), before declining again to 17,450 tonnes in May (-80.4 per cent) and 12,575 tonnes in June (-27.9 per cent).