Geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow, aluminium prices in the doldrums

SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 22,485 per tonne yesterday, unchanged. The price barely held at the MA5 (22,485) but remained well below the MA10 (23,155), MA30 (23,943.67), and MA60 (24,383.33). The bearish alignment of moving averages persisted, with the price finding temporary MA5 support after a short-term oversold decline.

The MACD DIF stood at -497.88 and DEA at -356.29, forming a downward death cross. The negative histogram widened to -283.18 (previous day -268.49), indicating renewed strengthening of bearish momentum. Trading volume continued to shrink to 94,400 lots, reflecting sluggish market participation. The core SHFE aluminium trading range is suggested at 22,200-22,700.

LME aluminium closed at USD 3,085.5 per tonne, down 0.23 per cent, fluctuating intraday between USD 3,085 and USD 3,093. Prices remained well below all key moving averages (MA5=3,115.9, MA10=3,189.7, MA30=3,453.6, MA60=3,507.57), with the bearish alignment continuing to show weakness. The MACD DIF stood at -127.78 and DEA at -99.48, forming a downward death cross. The negative histogram narrowed to -56.59 (previous day -64.59), indicating that bearish momentum slightly weakened. The core LME aluminium trading range is suggested at 3,050-3,110.