Dispute over Strait Management Right continues; Short-term bearish factors dominate aluminium price

SHFE aluminium settled at RMB 22,515 per tonne, plunging 2.19 per cent, with an intraday fluctuation range of 22,455–22,990. The price was well below all key moving averages (MA5=22,985, MA10≈23,622, MA30=24,085.5, MA60=24,460.67), with the moving average system in a bearish alignment and accelerating its divergence, intensifying the weak pattern.

The MACD showed DIF=-420.88, DEA=-284.31, a death cross downward, and the negative histogram bar expanded to -273.16, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum that reached a new low. Trading volume surged to 182,000 lots, with selling pressure increasing significantly. The suggested reference trading range for SHFE aluminium is 22,400–22,800. LME aluminium settled at USD 3,100.5 per tonne, edging up 0.06 per cent, with an intraday fluctuation of USD 3,096–USD 3,103.5.

The price was well below all key moving averages (MA5=3,139.5, MA10=3,253.25, MA30=3,488.05, MA60=3,520.13), with the moving average system in a bearish alignment, and the medium-term trend clearly weakening. The MACD showed DIF=-120.40, DEA=-84.37, a death cross downward, and the negative histogram bar expanded to -72.07, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum. The suggested reference trading range for LME aluminium is 3,080–3,130.