Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 24,400 per tonne in the night session on September 7, reached a high of RMB 24,470 per tonne and a low of RMB 24,335 per tonne, and closed at RMB 24,450 per tonne, up 30 from the previous close, a gain of 0.12 per cent. Prices traded above the 5/10/20/40/60-period moving averages, with short, medium, and long-term moving averages diverging upward in a bullish alignment, forming stepped support. Trading volume contracted notably during the session, and open interest fell slightly, driven mainly by bear position reductions.
On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD golden cross extended, with the red histogram maintained and bullish momentum continuing. On September 7, LME aluminium opened at USD 3,291 per tonne, reached a high of USD 3,320.5 per tonne and a low of USD 3,282 per tonne, and closed at USD 3,312.5 per tonne, up 0.50 per cent from the previous close. It drifted higher during the day, with prices rising again and closing above the short-term moving averages. Open interest pulled back slightly that day, driven mainly by bear position reductions. On the technical front, the daily MACD red histogram extended, with bullish momentum maintained.
Macro front: On September 7, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the Notice on Promoting Standardised Supplier Payment and Optimised Payment Term Management for Automakers, the first national-level payment term management document for an industry sector and a key measure for industrial ecosystem development.
According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 39.6 per cent, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 60.4 per cent. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 29.1 per cent, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 54.9 per cent, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 16.1 per cent.