Aluminium futures in the UK fell to around USD 3,060 per tonne on October 12, 2026, reaching their lowest level since February, as a stronger US dollar, easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and expanding Indonesian production weighed on prices.
The decline reflects a shift in market sentiment as the prospect of additional supply improves, while weaker demand expectations in China add pressure to London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices.
The faster-than-expected recovery of aluminium smelters in the Middle East has prompted a reassessment of the global supply outlook. Macquarie recently lowered its forecast for the global aluminium supply deficit as smelter restarts in the region progressed more quickly than anticipated.
In late August 2026, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reported that a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations. Recovery efforts continued following damage caused by an Iranian attack in March.
Supply expectations have also been influenced by Rio Tinto’s agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania, Australia, operational through the end of 2031.
The agreement provides greater visibility over future production from the facility, adding to the market’s improving supply outlook.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s expanding aluminium production capacity is adding another source of potential supply growth, putting further pressure on prices as the market reassesses the balance between production and consumption.