US fed rate hike expectations persist, geopolitical premium boost the resilience of aluminium price bottom

The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2608 contract settled at RMB 23,075 per tonne, up RMB 75 from yesterday’s settlement price, a rise of 0.33 per cent. It opened at RMB 23,040 per tonne and traded in a range of RMB 23,025-23,160 per tonne. The price traded above the MA5 (23,042.00) and MA10 (22,864.50) but below the MA30 (23,543.17) and MA60 (24,138.33) moving averages. The short- and medium-term moving averages formed a bearish alignment and gradually exerted downward pressure, highlighting a pronounced structure of consolidating on a subdued note.

The multiple moving averages overhead acted as layers of resistance. The MACD indicator showed DIF (-303.1975) above DEA (-364.8229), and the MACD histogram was 123.2509, suggesting that bearish momentum had eased. The advised core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB 22,600-23,400 per tonne. The LME aluminium 3M contract settled at USD 3,158 per tonne, up 0.02 per cent.

The price traded below the MA5 (3,161.70), MA10 (3,135.05), MA30 (3,311.17), and MA60 (3,452.88) moving averages. The short- and medium-term moving averages formed a bearish alignment and gradually exerted downward pressure, with a notable structure of consolidating on a subdued note.

The moving averages overhead exerted clear resistance. The MACD indicator showed DIF (-85.0133) above DEA (-99.7896), and the MACD histogram was 29.5525, as bearish momentum eased and the downward momentum slowed down. The advised core trading range for LME aluminium is USD 3,100-3,200 per tonne.