SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,230 per tonne, edging up 0.02 per cent. The price was capped by MA5 (24,259) but remained above MA10 (24,207) and MA30 (24,088), with the mid-term bullish structure intact. On the MACD indicator, DIF stood at 92.18 and DEA at 118.60, forming a death cross above the zero axis, with the green bars expanding to -52.85, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.
Trading volume expanded to 76,000 lots, reflecting widening bull-bear divergence. The core trading range for SHFE aluminium is suggested at 24,000-24,600. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,248.5 per tonne, edging down 0.05 per cent. The price broke below MA5 (3,264.1), MA10 (3,261.37), and MA30 (3,262.88), with short-term moving averages exerting pressure, though MA60 (3,227) still provided support.
On the MACD indicator, DIF stood at 1.6 and DEA at 7.57, forming a death cross above the zero axis, with the green bars expanding to -11.94, indicating weak short-term momentum. The core trading range for LME aluminium is suggested at 3,220-3,300.
The US S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 57 in September, a 52-month high; the services PMI rose to 58.7, a 59-month high; and the preliminary composite PMI climbed to 58.4, the highest since July 2021. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in October intensified, with US Treasury yields surging sharply, as multiple tenors rose nearly 20bp, and the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year Treasury yields all broke above 5 per cent again. The US Treasury Department announced it would purchase up to USD 6 billion in long-term Treasuries on Thursday. Fed Governor Barr stated that further rate hikes may be needed to ensure inflation returns to target.
Fundamentals: On the supply side, weekly production of domestic aluminium remained stable last week, while some downstream sectors saw certain production cuts, reducing liquid aluminium purchases and lowering the proportion of liquid aluminium by 0.02 percentage points. Outside China, according to foreign media reports, Alba’s operating capacity recovered to around 1.3 million tonnes, further lifting operating capacity outside China.
On the demand side, with the short holiday approaching, downstream stocking sentiment improved slightly. On the inventory side, aluminium ingot shipments from Xinjiang were disrupted, and combined with downstream stockpiling, the pace of aluminium ingot destocking widened this week. As of this Thursday, domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots fell by 43,000 tonnes from Monday and by 55,000 tonnes from last Monday. In the short term, the destocking trend for aluminium is expected to continue.