PMI recovers in peak season with structural divergence; macro pressure combined with pre-holiday adjustment dominates market

The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,895 per tonne in the night session on September 29, reached a high of RMB 23,960 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,845 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,910 per tonne, down RMB 110 per tonne or 0.46 per cent from the previous close. Futures came under pressure and weakened, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes. All moving averages turned downward, and bearish pressure was evident. Trading volume during the session was 57,873 lots, with open interest at 267,000 lots, up 1,187 lots, driven mainly by bearish position building. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF well below DEA and the green histogram expanding further, as bearish momentum continued to be released. On September 29, LME aluminium 3M opened at USD 3,246.0 per tonne, reached a high of USD 3,268.5 per tonne and a low of USD 3,205.5 per tonne, and closed at USD 3,213.5 per tonne, down USD 34.5 per tonne or 1.06 per cent from the previous close. Futures fell under pressure, with prices breaking below the 5/10/20/40 moving averages across all timeframes and approaching the 60-day moving average, as the short-term trend weakened. Trading volume for the day was 23,778 lots, with open interest at 577,000 lots, up 2,441 lots, driven mainly by bearish position building. On the technical front, a death cross formed on the daily MACD, with DIFF crossing below DEA and the green histogram expanding further, as bearish momentum continued to be released.