New Section 301 tariffs strike, limited upside room for aluminium prices in the short term

SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 23,280 per tonne, slightly down 0.02 per cent, with prices above MA5 (23,197) and MA10 (23,192.5), and the closing price of 23,280 exactly matching MA30 (23,276.67).

Short-term moving average support is effective, while the mid-term moving average pressure faces a test. MACD indicator: DIF = -119.91, DEA = -200.06, maintaining a golden cross, with the histogram widening to 160.3 (previous 151.86), indicating continuously strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume slightly expanded to 60,400 lots but remained low.

The recommended core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,000-23,500. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,184 per tonne, down 0.19 per cent, with prices above MA5 (3,172.9) and MA10 (3,168.55) but below MA30 (3,201.05) and MA60 (3,400.82), providing short-term support but clear medium-term resistance. MACD indicator: DIF = -43.29, DEA = -63.01, maintaining a golden cross, with the histogram widening to 39.44 (previous 38.99), indicating continuously strengthening bullish momentum.

The recommended core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,150-3,220.