Futures: SHFE aluminium 2607 contract closed at RMB 24,435 per tonne, up 0.49 per cent (RMB +120 per tonne). The price is currently running near key moving averages, having risen above MA5 (24,367.00) and MA10 (24,426.00), but still below MA30 (24,654.33) and MA60 (24,698.08). The moving averages overall remain in a bearish alignment, with limited short-term rebound strength and no clear reversal of the weak pattern.
The MACD indicator shows DIF = -95.1100, DEA = -84.0727, with the death cross continuing and the negative histogram at -22.0745, indicating that bearish momentum has weakened but still dominates. Trading volume was 78,407 lots, with moderate market trading activity; open interest was 289,755 lots, down 4,018 lots for the day, suggesting slight capital outflow and cooling sentiment for low-level positioning.
The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB 24,000-24,800 per tonne. LME aluminium 3M contract closed at USD 3,727.5 per tonne, down 0.13 per cent (-USD 5 per tonne). The price is running above MA5 (3,688.50), MA10 (3,662.85), MA30 (3,593.50), and MA60 (3,506.77), with short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages in a bullish alignment and a medium-term upward trend. The MACD indicator shows DIF = 50.6545, DEA = 43.0484, with the golden cross continuing and the histogram remaining in positive territory (15.2123), indicating that upward momentum persists. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is USD 3,700-3,800 per tonne.
Macro Front: In light of Israel’s ongoing military operations in Lebanon, Iran has suspended communication with the US and plans to completely block the Strait of Hormuz while launching operations on other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran stated that no negotiations will be held until Israel ceases military operations in Gaza and Lebanon and fully withdraws from Lebanon. US President Trump, after speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, said that all hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah will cease immediately, and troops heading to Beirut have been ordered to withdraw.
US President Trump said he expects to reach an agreement with Iran “within the next week” to extend the current ceasefire arrangement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the negotiations are progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 1.3 percentage points to 54, expanding for five consecutive months and hitting a four-year high. New orders growth accelerated to a four-month high, the prices paid index pulled back slightly but remained near highs since 2022, and the employment index improved.