Macro headwinds combined with divergent domestic demand in China keep aluminium prices consolidating

The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 24,000 per tonne in the night session on September 28, reached a high of RMB 24,055 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,950 per tonne, and closed at RMB 24,000 per tonne, up RMB 50 per tonne or 0.21 per cent from the previous close. Futures stabilised after a sharp decline, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes, turning these averages from support into resistance. Trading volume during the session was 53,872 lots, with open interest at 271,000 lots, down 3,240 lots, driven mainly by bear position reductions. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF trading well below DEA and green bars expanding significantly, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. On September 28, LME aluminium 3M opened at USD 3,275.0 per tonne, reached a high of USD 3,275.0 per tonne and a low of USD 3,222.5 per tonne, and closed at USD 3,248.0 per tonne, down USD 29.5 per tonne or 0.90 per cent from the previous close. Futures retreated after a rapid rise to close lower, with moving averages across all timeframes intertwined, and prices pulled back below the short-term moving averages, maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern. Open interest for the day was 575,000 lots, down 2,090 lots, driven mainly by bull position liquidation. On the technical front, the daily MACD maintained a death cross, with DIFF trading below DEA and green bars expanding again, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.