Macro disturbances cap upside room, while destocking continues to support aluminium price stabilisation

The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 24,240 per tonne in the night session on September 4, with a high of RMB 24,355 per tonne, a low of RMB 24,220 per tonne, and a close of RMB 24,320 per tonne, up 0.12 per cent from the previous close. Futures stabilised and rebounded, with moving averages in a bullish alignment, all short-term moving averages above long-term ones, and prices trading near the MA5. Trading volume shrank notably during the session, while open interest edged up, driven mainly by long-side additions.

On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD golden cross continued with the red histogram maintained, though its height contracted somewhat, indicating marginal weakening of bullish momentum. On September 4, LME aluminium opened at USD 3,316 per tonne, with a high of USD 3,321 per tonne, a low of USD 3,278 per tonne, and a close of USD 3,296 per tonne, down 0.65 per cent from the previous close.

The prior day’s bottom-fishing recovery failed to extend, and futures weakened again, though the close remained above all short-term moving averages. Open interest increased during the day, with notable short-side additions. On the technical front, the daily MACD red histogram continued, suggesting short-term upward momentum remains.