SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 22,530 per tonne, rebounding 1.1 per cent. Despite the positive close, prices remained under pressure below all key moving averages (MA5=22,727, MA60=23,633), with the medium-term bearish alignment intact. MACD indicator lines (DIF=-244.16, DEA=-188.68) operated below the zero axis, but the green bars narrowed significantly to -110.96 (previous day -150.62), indicating a marked weakening of bearish momentum and initial signs of a technical bottom divergence repair. Trading volume expanded to 101,500 lots, suggesting capital inflows at the bottom. The recommended core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 22,000-22,800. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,078.5 per tonne, surging 2.02 per cent. Prices rebounded strongly, reclaiming MA5 (3,061.5), MA10 (3,064.3), and MA30 (3,058.8) in one move, with the short-term trend turning notably stronger. The MACD indicator formed a golden cross below the zero axis (DIF=-16.01, DEA=-23.40), with red bars expanding to 14.79, showing strong bullish momentum. Trading volume increased to 25,600 lots, with active buying. The recommended core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,050-3,160.
According to the Wall Street Journal, US Vice President Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a senior Iranian security official to push for an end to the war. US President Trump recently stated he is open to Vance restarting negotiations with Iran and has granted him negotiating authority. Vance sent a letter in October to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a hardline figure, proposing a meeting between the two sides, though no date has been set. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said that on the night of November 10, two oil tankers attempted to secretly exit the Strait of Hormuz via an unauthorised route, struck mines, and triggered violent explosions. Iran warned that vessels failing to comply with its published navigation safety requirements in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would be deemed “a threat to Iran’s national security.”
Supply side, China’s operating aluminium capacity remained high, with weekly aluminium production continuing to edge up this week. Ex-China, production resumptions at Middle Eastern capacity that had previously cut production progressed slightly ahead of expectations, and with new capacity in Indonesia coming online, aluminium supply continued its recovery trend. LME aluminium inventory held near 229,000 tonnes, a near 20-year low. Demand side, the aluminium processing industry composite PMI fell below the 50 mark to 48.9 per cent in October, with increasing signals of weakening downstream processing demand as the peak season drew to a close. Downstream purchases were mainly just-in-time restocking. Inventory, according to SMM statistics, as of this Thursday, China’s aluminium ingot social inventory destocked by 18,000 tonnes from this Monday and by 32,000 tonnes from last Thursday. Exports, unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis exports in October totalled 594,000 tonnes, down 62,000 tonnes or 9.5 per cent MoM from 656,000 tonnes in September, but still up 18.1 per cent YoY. Cumulative exports from January to October reached 5.916 million tonnes, up 17.9 per cent YoY. Aluminium semis exports have been the most resilient demand component this year, but the monthly figure turned from growth to decline, and the market widely expects November exports to continue falling M-o-M amid inverted domestic and ex-China prices.