SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 22,620 per tonne in the daytime session, edging down 0.13 per cent. Futures retreated after a rapid rise, facing resistance at MA5 (22,675), and remained below MA10 (22,878) and MA30 (23,166), with the overall bearish structure unchanged. The MACD lines (DIF=-239.98, DEA=-197.03) formed a death cross below the zero axis; although the green bar narrowed to -85.91, weakness remained evident. Trading volume shrank to 101,100 lots, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The core trading range for SHFE aluminium is suggested at 22,200-22,800. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,025.0 per tonne, tumbling 1.74 per cent. The rebound stalled, with prices falling back below MA5 (3,055.1), MA10 (3,060.0), and MA30 (3,055.7), returning to a weak trend. The MACD indicator formed a death cross below the zero axis, with the red bar turning green (-9.08), signaling a bearish shift in short-term momentum. Trading volume expanded to 26,900 lots, with selling pressure re-emerging. The core trading range for LME aluminium is suggested at 3,000-3,060.
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong stated at a regular press conference that the “30 billion for 30 billion” reciprocal tariff reduction framework is conducive to stabilising and expanding bilateral trade between China and the US, and both sides are maintaining close communication on its implementation. Regarding economic and trade consultations, China and the US are maintaining close communication on issues of respective concern in areas such as trade and investment, with relevant progress to be announced in due course.
Supply side, China’s aluminium production remained basically stable with almost no growth, and replacement projects only released sporadic output; overseas, nearby supply has evolved into the most severe squeeze in decades. This week, LME aluminium inventory fell to 226,700 tonnes, with a cumulative year-to-date decline of 56 per cent. Demand side, the aluminium processing industry PMI fell below the 50 mark to 48.9 per cent in October. With the October peak season over and the proportion of liquid aluminium declining MoM, demand and supply pressures are gradually becoming evident. October exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis totalled 593,900 tonnes, down 62,000 tonnes or 9.5 per cent from 656,000 tonnes in September. Moreover, the market widely expects November exports to continue declining MoM amid inverted domestic and overseas prices, adding another downward revision to Q4 demand expectations. Inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of this Thursday, China’s social inventory of aluminium ingot destocked by 18,000 tonnes from this Monday and by 32,000 tonnes from last Thursday.