According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminium ingot and aluminium billet (collectively referred to as aluminium inventory) inventories at major consumption areas in China around the National Day holiday from 2020 to 2026: overall destocking before the holiday, the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday, and a pullback after the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday from 2020 to 2025 (September 30 to October 8), aluminium ingot, aluminium billet, and aluminium inventory all accumulated, with aluminium ingot increases of 4.0 per cent-17.3 per cent, aluminium billet increases of 12.7 per cent-66.0 per cent, and aluminium inventory increases of 6.9 per cent-21.2 per cent. The inventory buildup of aluminium billet was significantly greater than that of aluminium ingot. In the second week after the holiday (October 22), aluminium ingot did not accumulate again except in 2021, while aluminium billet turned to destocking in all six years.
In 2026, before the holiday, aluminium ingot destocked sharply for three consecutive weeks, decreasing by 63,000 tonnes (-7.9 per cent) on September 17, 55,000 tonnes (-7.5 per cent) on September 24, and 40,000 tonnes on September 30 compared with September 24, with a cumulative destocking of 158,000 tonnes over three weeks, the steepest for the same period in history. Aluminium billet destocked slightly in the first two weeks and turned to a slight increase of 500 tonnes in the third week. On September 10, aluminium inventory was 949,000 tonnes, the highest for the same period since 2020. By September 30, it fell to 787,500 tonnes (aluminium ingot 638,000 tonnes, aluminium billet 149,500 tonnes). During the one-week holiday (October 8), aluminium ingot, aluminium billet, and aluminium inventory accumulated by 48,000 tonnes (+7.5 per cent), 38,000 tonnes (+25.4 per cent), and 86,000 tonnes (+10.9 per cent), respectively, with the aluminium billet buildup being the second highest in history. In the first week after the holiday (October 15), they turned to destocking, decreasing by 50,000 tonnes (-7.3 per cent), 19,000 tonnes (-10.1 per cent), and 69,000 tonnes (-7.9 per cent) respectively compared with October 8, bringing aluminium inventory down to 804,500 tonnes (aluminium ingot 636,000 tonnes, aluminium billet 168,500 tonnes).