Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to introduce a revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) formula in the spring of 2026. The main change is a significant increase in the adjustment factor used to calculate nickel ore prices.
In addition, associated elements such as cobalt, iron, and chromium will be included in the pricing formula for the first time. This change will raise the base price of nickel ore across all grades.
Low-grade laterite ore used in hydrometallurgical processing is expected to see stronger price increases, which will push up production costs for both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical refining. As a result, downstream industries such as stainless steel and the new energy sectors will face higher cost pressure.
On the supply side, nickel ore supply remains tight due to delays in mining quota approvals in Indonesia and rising prices of supporting materials used in refining. These factors continue to strengthen cost support for nickel prices.
Following this policy signal, international nickel futures prices have risen sharply and broken through key price levels. The market generally believes that high raw material costs will become normal unless supply and demand conditions improve. If refined nickel output is further reduced or the policy impact is stronger than expected, nickel prices are likely to continue rising.