CRU Group, an industry research company, expects the global aluminum market to transition from a supply deficit of slightly under 500,000 tons in 2026 into a substantial surplus in 2027 and 2028, placing downward pressure on prices. The ongoing shortfall is due to Middle Eastern smelter output reductions linked to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and facility attacks involving Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba).
Production recovery across the Middle East and new capacity additions in China and other regions will drive the oversupply. Although artificial intelligence data centers and automotive sectors continue boosting consumption for server racks, power cables, and lightweight materials, the demand growth fails to absorb the global supply expansion completely.
Lower aluminum prices will decrease material expenses for packaging, construction, and transportation industries, though reduced prices could diminish investment incentives for expanding domestic smelting capacity in the United States.