China aluminium inventory pullback, multiple factors in play as aluminium price drifts higher

The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2609 contract closed at RMB 23,835 per tonne, up RMB 70 from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.29 per cent. It opened at RMB 23,785.00 per tonne today and fluctuated in a range of RMB 23,740–23,905 per tonne. Prices were trading above the MA5 (23,740.00), MA10 (23,542.00), MA30 (23,191.33), and MA60 (23,741.00).

The medium and long-term moving averages remained in a bearish alignment, continuing to exert downward pressure. The pattern of consolidating at lows and drifting higher persisted, with the higher range above forming key resistance. The MACD indicator showed the DIF (93.4473) above the DEA (-3.5285) and the MACD histogram at 193.9515. Bearish momentum continued to wane, while bullish recovery momentum remained strong.

The recommended core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB 23,500–24,100 per tonne. The LME aluminium 3M contract closed at USD 3,253 per tonne, up 0.22 per cent. It opened at USD 3,245 per tonne today and fluctuated between USD 3,233.00 and USD 3,256 per tonne. Prices were trading above the MA5 (3,227.70), MA10 (3,199.45), and MA30 (3,164.40) but below the MA60 (3,349.41).

The medium and long-term moving averages remained in a bearish alignment and were gradually pressing downward. An overall pattern of consolidation and recovery at lows emerged, with the 60-day moving average above forming significant resistance. The MACD indicator showed the DIF (-6.0545) above the DEA (-25.1982) and the MACD histogram at 38.2874. Bearish momentum continued to wane, and the rebound from lows persisted. The recommended core trading range for LME aluminium is USD 3,200–USD 3,350 per tonne.