According to SMM statistics, as of September 17, aluminium billet inventory in major domestic consumption areas recorded 152,500 tonnes, down 500 tonnes from last Thursday (September 10) and down 5,000 tonnes from this Monday (September 14). The persistent upward trend in inventory since mid-August has shifted slightly, turning into a modest pullback from highs.
On a Y-o-Y basis, inventory was approximately 17,500 tonnes higher than the same period in 2025, about 31,000 tonnes higher than 2024, and roughly 61,000 tonnes higher than 2023, with total inventory still at the highest level for the same period over the past four years. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminium billet withdrawals during September 7–September 14 recorded 38,900 tonnes, up 2,800 tonnes W-o-W, ending the previous period’s pullback and indicating marginal improvement in market trading activity.
By region, Foshan inventory stood at 75,500 tonnes, down 1,500 tonnes from last Thursday; Wuxi recorded 22,000 tonnes, flat W-o-W; Changzhou at 17,500 tonnes and Nanchang at 11,500 tonnes both saw slight inventory buildup of 500 tonnes each; Huzhou recorded 26,000 tonnes, flat W-o-W.
This round of inventory weakening was driven by both supply and demand factors: Demand side, aluminium prices pulled back from last week’s highs, downstream acceptance of high aluminium prices rebounded, and purchase willingness improved marginally, leading to a recovery in warehouse withdrawals and exerting some destocking pressure on inventory.
Supply side, aluminium billet producers in Guangxi began maintenance-related production cuts this week, raising expectations of supply tightening and easing inbound pressure, further supporting the loosening of high inventory levels. Driven by supply-side maintenance cuts and pre-holiday demand stockpiling, aluminium billet inventory destocking momentum is expected to strengthen next week, with inventory likely to continue its modest pullback. Key focus should be on the actual scale of Guangxi maintenance cuts and the pace of Foshan arrivals digestion.