Futures Market: Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2508 contract opened at RMB 20,340 per tonne, with a high of RMB 20,380 per tonne, a low of RMB 20,325 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,345 per tonne. Trading volume was 42,000 lots, and open interest was 253,000 lots. Last night, LME aluminium opened at USD 2,567 per tonne, with a high of USD 2,569 per tonne, a low of USD 2,565 per tonne, and closed at USD 2,566 per tonne.
Macro: (1) On Wednesday, as Trump announced that the US would hold talks with Iran next week, risk-aversion sentiment eased, and the market generally expected the US Fed to soon resume its interest rate cut cycle. The US dollar index ultimately closed down 0.27 per cent at 97.71 points. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.2920 per cent, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.7930 per cent. (Bearish ★) (2) Fed Chairman Powell stated that there is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the economic situation, and he hopes to rely on actual data rather than making overly confident predictions. He does not want to provide excessive forward guidance. The US economy is performing better than other countries, which means interest rates will be higher than in other countries. At some point, the Fed will resume interest rate cuts. (Neutral ★) (3) As the deadline set by US President Trump for re-imposing “reciprocal” tariffs on July 9 approaches, EU leadership is on high alert. The EU has stated that if Trump maintains the basic tariffs on EU goods, the EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products, with the civil aviation sector being the first to be affected. (Bearish ★)
Fundamentals: (1) According to SMM statistics, as of June 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 463,000 tonnes, an increase of 14,000 tonnes from last Thursday and a decrease of 1,000 tonnes from Monday. (Bullish ★) (2) According to SMM statistics, as of June 25, the aluminium ingot inventory in Guangdong was 150,000 tonnes; in Wuxi, it was 113,000 tonnes; and in Gongyi, it was 63,000 tonnes. The total inventory in these three regions was 326,000 tonnes, a decrease of 500 tonnes from the previous trading day. (Bullish ★)