Futures: Last night, the SHFE aluminium 2505 contract opened at RMB 19,780 per tonne, with a high of RMB 19,810 per tonne and a low of RMB 19,670 per tonne, closing at RMB 19,725 per tonne, up RMB 110 per tonne, a 0.56 per cent increase. Last night, LME aluminium opened at USD 2,366 per tonne, with a high of USD 2,376 per tonne and a low of USD 2,366 per tonne, closing at USD 2,373 per tonne, up USD 3 per tonne, a 0.15 per cent increase.
Macro: (1) Trump: The first agreement on tariffs is very close to being reached. Tariffs may bring “transitional issues,” but the US is in a very good state. White House trade advisor Navarro said the market decline on the 10th was no big deal. (Bullish★)
(2) The US March unadjusted CPI YoY was 2.4 per cent, hitting a six-month low, below the market expectation of 2.6 per cent. The market has almost fully priced in a US Fed interest rate cut in June. Trump said that inflation has declined. (Bullish★)
(3) Ministry of Commerce: Recently organised a symposium to study helping foreign trade enterprises expand domestic sales channels. The current bonded policies in special customs supervision areas within the pilot free trade zones remain unchanged. (Bullish★)
Fundamentals: (1) On April 10, SMM statistics showed that the aluminium inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was 75,500 tonnes, and the Guangdong Bonded Zone inventory was 19,700 tonnes, totalling 95,200 tonnes, an increase of 3,000 tonnes W-o-W. (Bearish★)
(2) According to SMM statistics, on April 10, the inventory of aluminium ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 744,000 tonnes, down 30,000 tonnes from Monday this week and down 21,000 tonnes W-o-W from last Thursday. SMM believes that although there was a slight inventory buildup on the first day after the Qingming Festival, the overall destocking trend in the first half of April has not changed. Coupled with the rapid decline in aluminium prices earlier this week, which stimulated some purchasing demand in the market, domestic aluminium ingot inventory fell rapidly by 30,000 tonnes mid-week, successfully pulling back below 750,000 tonnes, once again strengthening fundamental support for the aluminium market and effectively boosting market confidence. (Bullish★)