Futures: On the night of December 19, SHFE aluminium 2602 contract opened at RMB 22,295 per tonne and closed at RMB 22,245 per tonne, up 0.27 per cent, with a high ofRMB 22,365 per tonne and a low of RMB 22,200 per tonne. Trading volume was 111,000 lots, and open interest was 321,000 lots, showing a “bottom out + steady volume and open interest” pattern, holding up well. LME aluminium opened at USD 2,917.5 per tonne, reached a high of USD 2,960 per tonne, and a low of USD 2,909.5 per tonne, closing at USD 2,955.5 per tonne, up 1.32 per cent. Trading volume was 21,600 lots, an increase of 4,742 lots, and open interest was 683,000 lots, an increase of 8,942 lots.
Macro front: The expanded meeting of the Ministry of Commerce Party Leadership Group was held in Beijing on December 20. The meeting emphasised boosting consumption, expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, and releasing the potential of service consumption (Bullish ★). According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the US Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 21 per cent, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 79 per cent. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 47.1 per cent, the probability of no change is 43.4 per cent, and the probability of a 50-basis-point cut is 9.5 per cent (Bullish ★).
Fundamentals: In terms of inventory, according to SMM statistics, as of last Friday, the inventory of aluminium ingot in major domestic consumption areas was 600,000 tonne, an increase of 22,000 tonne from Thursday, and an increase of 4,000 tonne w-o-w from Monday.