[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Buildup Clash, Aluminum Prices Move Sideways Awaiting Consumption Guidance] Recently on the macro front, global trade tensions have continued to ease, and domestic industrial profits have shown ongoing recovery, especially with significant improvement in high-tech manufacturing profits, supporting expectations for aluminium semis demand; overseas interest rate cut expectations are also favourable for risk asset preferences. The demand side remains the core focus of the market going forward, with some companies already starting to stockpile for the upcoming peak season orders. Domestic downstream operating rates for aluminium have slightly rebounded, but as aluminium prices recover, terminal shipments have declined again, and procurement volumes of spot aluminium by processing enterprises have noticeably decreased. In terms of inventory, social inventory at major consumption sites for aluminium ingot was recorded at 466,500 tonnes on Wednesday, up 3,000 tonnes M-o-M. With no sign of an inventory turning point and continued buildup, futures have strengthened, and A00 aluminium absolute prices remain high, leading to weak downstream procurement sentiment and pressure on spot premiums. Overall, consumption resilience persists against a backdrop of low inventory, and macro sentiment recovery along with industry policy expectations are the main drivers for aluminium prices. It is expected that aluminium prices will continue to move sideways at high levels this week, with close attention to the strength of subsequent consumption fulfilment and overseas monetary policy trends.
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