In 2025, LME aluminium prices showed a volatile upward trend. From the beginning of the year to mid-March, prices remained relatively stable before retreating to around USD 2,400 per tonne in late March. After April, the market gradually stabilised and edged higher, until a new round of increases began in late October. By November, aluminium prices were fluctuating in the USD 2,800-2,900 per tonne range, marking the highest level since the surge triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022.
As prices continued to rise, demand in several global markets, especially Southeast Asia and India, fell short of expectations even outside traditional off-season periods. Rising prices for aluminium, scrap, and related products suppressed end-user consumption, leaving upstream, midstream, and downstream players caught in a dilemma of “hard to buy, hard to sell.” Against this backdrop, and with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) set to take effect in 2026, market attention on the trajectory of LME aluminium prices 2026 has intensified.
According to reports from multiple overseas institutions and SMM research, the main international perspectives on aluminium’s structural outlook can be summarised as follows: