Iron ore prices are projected to decline gradually over the medium to long term, impacting Australian exporters. Market analysts anticipate prices will fall from an estimated average of just over US$97 per dry metric tonne (dmt) in 2025 to US$80/dmt by 2029. This decline is attributed to a projected surplus in global seaborne trade balance and potential volatility in Chinese imports, driven by an expected reduction in China’s steel production.
S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Platts proposes updating the baseline quality specifications of its IODEX iron ore benchmark, effective 2 January 2026. This adjustment reflects a confirmed degradation in the quality of Australian iron ore fines. The benchmark index would shift to reflect 61% Fe iron ore fines, revised from 62% currently, with corresponding adjustments to silica, alumina, and phosphorus quality specifications to account for higher impurities. Platts Iron Ore Index, or IODEX, is a benchmark assessment of the spot price of physical iron ore.
Despite short-term price volatility, some junior exploration companies remain optimistic, as demonstrated by capital raises during Q2 2025. Hawsons Iron (ASX:HIO), for instance, commenced raising up to $1 million through a share purchase plan to expedite activities at its Hawsons Iron Project. Hawsons Iron is focused on developing high-grade iron ore projects. Burley Minerals (ASX:BUR) completed an entitlement offer raising $563,891.