On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on the Iranian capital, Tehran, drawing market attention. The following is an overview of the aluminium industry information in the Iranian region:
Bauxite & alumina:
There is only one alumina refinery in the Iran region, which also has associated bauxite mining operations. Annual alumina production and bauxite output are approximately 250,000 tonnes and 650,000 tonnes, respectively. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminium production, and it relies on alumina imports year-round. India is the main source, with Iran’s alumina imports from India accounting for 40-80 per cent of its total imports.
Aluminium:
Iran has four aluminium smelters, all currently in operation, with a national average operating rate above 90 per cent and an annual output exceeding 600,000 tonnes. Its production exceeds domestic consumption, leading to some exports, mainly to Türkiye, China, and other countries. Net exports account for 30-50 per cent of production.
Overall, if the local aluminium industry production in Iran collapses due to the geopolitical conflict, overseas aluminium supply is expected to tighten, while the alumina surplus is expected to worsen further. However, there is a considerable spatial distance between Iran’s aluminium industry plants and the attacked city of Tehran. The closest is the Arak aluminium plant, nearly 300 km away. Nevertheless, subsequent attention must be paid to whether the geopolitical conflict escalates, affecting other regions, such as near the Strait of Hormuz, or whether it will impact Iran’s electricity supply or alumina import supply, consequently affecting electrolytic aluminium production.