Over the past two weeks, the aluminium value chain has unfolded in fragments rather than a single, linear move. What starts as policy shifts and price pressure in bauxite moves through a well-supplied alumina market, before ending in a sudden supply shock in primary aluminium. Each layer is reacting to a different trigger-but together, they are reshaping the balance across the system.
Bauxite: export controls, price signals and new capacity plans
At the upstream end, supply discipline and expansion are moving side by side. Nigeria has stepped forward with plans to build a 1 million tonne alumina refinery, backed by USD 1.3 billion in financing, with expectations of producing 19 million tonnes over 20 years and contributing USD 1.2 billion annually to GDP. The full story is here.
At the same time, Guinea-Conakry is tightening its grip on exports. After shipping 183 million tonnes in 2025-up 25 per cent year-on-year-and targeting 200 million tonnes for 2026, the country is now set to cut volumes from April to stabilise a market where prices have already fallen 25–35 per cent from last year’s highs. Nearly 70 per cent of its exports continue to move to China, keeping demand concentrated even as supply risks grow. Read more.
Pricing trends reflect this tension. FOB Guinea bauxite stood at USD 33–38 per dry metric tonne on March 27, up slightly week-on-week but still down USD 8–11 per dmt since December. Industry views suggest that if exports rise unchecked towards 240 million tonnes, prices could slip further to around USD 50 per tonne, putting additional pressure on producers.