On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched extensive strikes against targets in Iran operations dubbed “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion”, respectively. In retaliation, Iran subsequently announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While the outlook is positive for both nonferrous metals, aluminium is expected to see greater upside potential than copper, a Mysteel analyst suggested. Copper prices are likely to be buoyed mainly by safe-haven demand and supply disruptions, though they remain under noticeable pressure from the macroeconomic environment and tepid demand. In the near term, copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are expected to climb and consolidate at highs between RMB 98,000-106,000per tonne (USD14,290-15,456per tonne), Mysteel analyst said.
The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resultant shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz should directly bolster copper prices. As a major exporter of copper concentrate, any disruption to Iranian shipments would trigger global supply concerns. At the same time, rising oil prices from the military escalation will increase smelting costs. These factors, combined with rising market risk aversion, will likely keep copper prices fluctuating at elevated levels in the near term.
In the medium term, copper price trends will depend on the duration of the conflict and when shipping access through the strait recovers. If tensions ease soon, the current geopolitical premium will gradually fade, and fundamentals, including high inventories and slow downstream restarts, will once again dominate the market. In this scenario, prices are likely to retreat after initial gains. If the conflict spreads and shipping remains disrupted, supply constraints will continue to support prices at high levels, though upside potential will still be capped by actual demand.