Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,545 per tonne last night, down 0.43 per cent. The price was slightly below MA5 (24,643) but near MA10 (24,433.5), MA30 (24,505.67), and MA60 (24,344.17), under short-term pressure but still supported by medium-term moving averages. The MACD indicator DIF (76.15) and DEA (52.88) maintained a golden cross above the zero axis, but the histogram narrowed to 46.55, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 24,400-25,000.
LME aluminium closed at USD 3,506 per tonne, up 1.02 per cent. The price was running above all moving averages, with MA5 (3,481), MA10 (3,387.65), etc., in a standard bullish alignment, maintaining a solid upward trend. The MACD indicator DIF (62.45) and DEA (48.52) showed a golden cross pointing upward, with a positive histogram (27.85), indicating sustained upward momentum. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,480-3,550.
Macro front: On April 7 local time, US President Trump posted on social media: “I have agreed to a pause on the bombing and strikes on Iran for a period of two weeks.” Subsequently, a White House official stated that Israel had agreed to a temporary ceasefire. On the other hand, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that, based on the Supreme Leader’s recommendation and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan.
Fundamentals: Supply side, the Middle East conflict impacted core capacity, and the proportion of liquid aluminium in China rebounded significantly. Ex-China supply was directly hit by geopolitical conflicts, with Middle Eastern aluminium enterprises cutting production. Recently, the UAE’s EGA and Bahrain’s Alba were successively struck by missile attacks, with production facilities damaged. The extent of damage is still under comprehensive assessment. The market widely expects large-scale production cuts or even shutdowns, with the global aluminium supply gap expected to widen and concerns over ex-China supply continuing to escalate.