What strikes me if you look at U.S. sheet prices compared to those just about anywhere else in the world is how volatile the market here is. We saw hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increase 62% throughout Q4 2023. They then almost immediately reversed course and started falling in the new year.

Prices in other regions followed a similar pattern. But the magnitude of the volatility is unique to the U.S.

How do steel consumers in the U.S. manage a business with a raw material price that whipsaws even in times of roughly stable demand? Yes, steel is a cyclical business, and it always will be. But the volatility of the last few years in sheet is something new.

It’s almost like trying to build a stable, profitable business around Bitcoin – the posterchild for volatility. I don’t know whether anyone has charted Bitcoin volatility compared to HRC volatility, but I suspect U.S. sheet prices and crypto might have more in common than we think.